Wordle Statistics Update

Here are my latest Wordle statistics as of August 6th 2025:

It turns out that I've lost 25 games out of the total of 908 games that I've played. This corresponds to a win rate of 97.25% which Wordle has rounded down to the 97% shown above. My average is \( \textbf{3.94} \) guesses which is a slight increase from the \( \textbf{3.92} \) guesses recorded on the 7th October 2024. Is this a sign of mental decline or is Wordle getting slightly more difficult?

What has changed significantly however, is my win rate. On the previous date it was 98.25%. I had lost only 11 games out of the 629 games that I'd played. Since then I've lost another 14 games which has seriously impacted my win rate. I put the following question to Gemini:

Are there any statistics to support the fact that Wordle, the online word game, is getting more difficult over the past year or more. I'm interested because my win rate in the game has dropped from 98.25% to 97.25% over the past year. Am I getting worse or is Wordle getting harder. I'd be curious to know.

This is an excellent question that gets to the heart of a common Wordle player's frustration. The short answer is: yes, there's evidence to suggest that the game is, in fact, getting harder. Your experience is not just a personal feeling; it's a trend that has been observed and analyzed.

While The New York Times, which acquired Wordle, has stated that they haven't intentionally made the game more difficult, and even removed some more obscure words, the inherent structure of the game's pre-determined word list is the likely culprit.

Here's a breakdown of the statistical and logical reasons why Wordle is getting harder:

1. The Finite and Ordered Word List

The game's original creator, Josh Wardle, established a list of about 2,300 possible solution words. These were likely curated with common words appearing earlier in the list and more obscure or challenging words appearing later. As the game progresses through this list, the words naturally become less common, contain more unusual letter combinations, or have tricky repeating letters.

2. "Confusability" of Words

A major factor in a Wordle puzzle's difficulty is its "confusability"—that is, how many other valid five-letter words share a similar letter pattern. As the game's word list gets further in, there are more words that fit this profile. For example, a word ending in "-OUND" could be "FOUND," "MOUND," "ROUND," "POUND," etc. As you get hints, you might narrow it down to the correct letters but be left with several possibilities for your last few guesses, making a loss more likely. Words with repeated letters, like "MOMMY" or "CORER," also fall into this category and have a higher failure rate.

3. Data from WordleBot and Player Averages

The New York Times' own tool, WordleBot, analyzes player data for each puzzle, including the average number of guesses and the solve rate. This data has shown that certain words are consistently more difficult for players. For instance, an analysis of the "10 most difficult Wordles of 2024" showed words like "HUNCH," "FIBER," and "PIPER" had high average guess counts and low solve rates. These difficult words, with their repeated letters and multiple possible solutions, are appearing more frequently as the game's long-term list is exhausted. One report even noted that a recent month was "officially Wordle's toughest month ever," with an average score of 4.22, significantly higher than the game's overall average of around 3.97.

What This Means for You

Your win rate dropping from 98.25% to 97.25% is a very small, statistically normal change over a year, but it aligns with the overall trend of the game getting slightly more difficult. It's highly unlikely that you are "getting worse" at the game; rather, the game's inherent difficulty is increasing. The words are becoming less common and are more likely to have the characteristics that make a puzzle a "streak-breaker."